Pre-Game Jitters

So the Super Bowl starts in a little under 4 hours. Earlier this week, the wife wondered aloud why I wasn't having more fun as the game drew near: I seemed serious, anxious, as though my job or a large wager rode on the outcome of the game. Nothing rides on the outcome for me, of course, except the momentary disappointment or exhilaration that is the only reward of any faithful fan. So I'm trying to regain some perspective, to remember how little Monday (and every day after) will change according to the final score today.

But the Steelers are easy to like, not just as a team but also as individuals. I'm fond of them. I want to see Bettis get his ring. I want to see Roethlisberger make good on his promise to Bettis. The Seahawks are difficult to dislike, but easy to forget. How would history be served by their victory? The Steelers have the story on their side; their narrative is better. They should win. And that's what makes it so tough.

Like any loyal fan, I am holding myself responsible for the outcome. I have gotten the Steelers this far by betting against them. I didn't think they could win two games in Cincinnati, and I certainly didn't think they would win in Indy. When they headed to Denver, I thought, "Well, it has been a nice run, but now it's over." Each week I resigned myself to a Steelers' loss; I was just happy to see them playing. But I can't sustain my (lack of) expectations. I feel as though they could win. And that makes me nervous.

Here's the thing: the Steelers have played in a superior conference against superior competition. While the Steelers played two games against both the Browns and the Ravens (and lost to Baltimore once), the Seahawks padded their record with two games against the Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers, three truly lousy teams. The trend continued in the playoffs: while the Steelers beat three of the league's best, the Seahawks beat a strong Carolina team after dispatching a Washington team that wouldn't have made the playoffs but for some miserable play down the stretch by other teams. The Steelers' defense is excellent, as is their offensive line. Roethlisberger is hot, and everyone is confident.

But I only need to look back to last year to remember why that confidence might be cause for concern. The Seahawks are an unknown quantity, which makes them dangerous, I think: it's hard to know what you'll get from them. Their O-line is among the best in the league (though perhaps unused to the 3-4 alignment and certainly unused to LeBeau's blitz schemes). Their defense led the league in sacks, a feat accomplished largely without blitzing. And, of course, Shawn Alexander was the league MVP this year, no small feat regardless of the competition. The Steelers have given up yards against running backs like Rudi Johnson this year, and they key to stopping the run has often been the offense: once the Steelers are ahead, opposing offenses stop running the ball.

So the game is a tough call, and not just because of the Xs and Os. But here are my thoughts: the Steelers will come out running the ball if the Seahawks don't blitz, running draws and screens to slow down the Seattle front four. They will try to slow the game down, keep the defense on the field, tire them out. They will try to confuse the Seahawks' linebackers, who are young. The Seahawks will try to chew up the Steelers with Shawn Alexander, to discourage the defense and put them on their heels. Polamalu and the middle linebackers (Foote and Farrior) will need to play well and with intelligence and patience, as Alexander is a shifty cutback runner. Expect the Steelers to try to punish Alexander, too, much the way that the Patriots's secondary did against the Rams' receivers a few years ago.

Ben must stay calm. Hasselbeck must get confused.

The beauty of sport is that anxiety and speculation must give way energy and action. And maybe that's why I haven't been having more fun: no energy for me, no action. My pick? Steelers, 27-10.

(If the Steelers lose, tell them I'm sorry.)

Cheers.